Swedish superstar Alexander “the Mauler” Gustafsson (14-1) will face the biggest challenge of his career yet when he faces the Brazilian legend Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (21-6). If the Swede is able to the beat the fighter he admired as a kid, he should get a shot at the light heavyweight belt held by the monstrous Jon “Bones” Jones. Here is our breakdown of the upcoming fight.
Alexander “the Mauler” Gustafsson (14-1)
Recent fights: Since his first and only career loss that came in the hands of Phil Davis in April of 2010, Gustafsson has been on a roll. The Swede submitted Cyrille Diabate and James Te Huna before scoring TKO wins over Matt Hamill and Vladdy Matyushenko. Gustafsson’s last fight took place in his hometown of Stockholm where he took home a dominant decision win over Thiago Silva in April of 2012. After the Silva fight Gustafsson took a little time off from hardcore training and focused on rehabing an old nagging injury but has been back in full throttle training since August.
Striking: Gustafsson’s striking style is very boxing centric, thanks to his background in boxing and current head coach Andreas Michael who was a top level boxing trainer before switching over to MMA. Like boxers, Gustafsson doesn’t just stand and throw punches. The Swede keeps up constant movement and uses a lot of fakes, faints and distracting hand movements to throw off his opponent’s game. Gustafsson’s heavy use of jab is also a typical sight in boxing. The Mauler likes to sting his opponent’s with long jabs before smashing them with a right upper cut or a straight right. Gustafsson’s also uses the jab well to set up his low kicks. Other than the low kicks and knees Gustafsson doesn’t throw that many kicks which is probably because kicks often give your opponent a chance to take the fight to the ground.
Grappling: Gustafsson is a primarily a striker so his grappling is mostly defense oriented: stuffing takedowns and getting back to the feet if the fight hits the ground. Against Davis, who is one of the best wrestlers in the light heavyweight division, Gustafsson showed that his takedown defense is on a high level. This even though he got taken down and submitted by Davis in the end of first round. It should be also noted that the Davis fight took place over two years ago and before Gustafsson had done any training in the wrestling heavy gyms of USA. In Stockholm, Gustafsson showed off his improved grappling when he took down Thiago Silva with a beautiful outside trip. Lately Gustafsson has been working on his wrestling with fellow countryman Jimmy Lidberg who took home a bronze medal in greco wrestling from the London Olympics. In his fights Gustafsson has shown that he has solid fundamentals on the ground and makes good use of his long limbs.
Stamina: When making an assessment of Gustafsson as a fighter, it is his cardiovascular endurance and ability to take punishment that are the biggest question marks. This is due to him not being in any long and grueling back-n-forth wars. The Mauler has gone full three rounds just once and that was the Silva fight where Gustafsson was able to dictate the pace of the fight. Gustafsson’s fighting style is light on cardio: avoid taxing clinch battles with good footwork and mix quick strikes with power punches. It’s hard to find anything that would imply Gustafsson’s not having the gas tank to go three hard rounds with Shogun. Gustafsson has been hit with few heavy shots but the Swede has never been properly rocked. Te Huna punished Gustafsson with Ground and Pound but Gustafsson kept his cool under pressure, worked his way back to the feet and eventually submitted Te Huna with a rear naked choke.
Keys to victory: Movement, movement, movement. Stick-n-Move is definitely the strategy that most people are waiting for Gustafsson’s to use against Shogun, especially early in the fight. But regarding movement, Gustafsson has to be careful how he moves. Backing straight up with chin in the air can be very dangerous against a power striker like Shogun. Shogun likes to rush in with a flurry of strikes, make opponents step backwards and then punish them with crushing low kicks and looping punches. Gustafsson must control the distance with his long jab and circle away when Shogun storms forward like a Apache helicopter. Counter striking and takedown attempts are another way to stop aggressive Shogun: right upper cut when Shogun moves in with his head down and duck in for takedowns when Shogun throws those looping punches. The longer the fight goes, the more it should favor younger and healthier Gustafsson. The Swede should avoid taking big risks in the first half of the fight and then really turn up the heat when the Brazilian veteran begins to slow down. In the pre-fight interview Gustafsson said “I will be fast, keep my technique, keep my game plan and stay on the outside” in a fight that he hopes is “a stand up war”.
Alexander “the Mauler” Gustafsson’s Highlight “Viking Heritage” by Christoffer Jonasson
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (21-6)
Recent fights: Former PRIDE FC Middleweight champ Shogun became the UFC light heavyweight champion in May of 2010 when he knocked out fellow Brazilian Lyoto Machida in the first round. Shogun’s first title defense was a unsuccessful one as he lost the belt to reigning champ Jon Jones after a devastating beating. The Brazilian quickly got back on track with a quick knock out win over Forrest Griffin in Rio. After that Shogun faced tough as nails Dan Henderson and the two veterans put on a show that resulted in one of the best fights of 2011. Shogun lost a narrow decision to Henderson after a five round slug fest that saw both fighters badly hurt at times. Shogun’s last fight was also a non-title five rounder, this time with Brandon Vera. Again both fighters were on queer street at times but this time it was Shogun who prevailed and stopped Vera with strikes in the fourth round. The key point in many of Shogun’s recent fights is that his body and of course of also mind has taken awful amount of punishment lately. Especially the fights with Jones and Henderson were horrendous on him. Wars like that always take away a piece of fighter’s physical performance and spirit.
Striking: Since Shogun skyrocketed to the top of PRIDE FC, he has been the poster boy of Chute Boxe striking style that consists of traditional Muay Thai weapons used in whirlwind like circular motion. Shogun’s stance is lower than Gustafsson’s. From this lower stance Shogun is able to explode forward with a flurry of strikes and also able to generate more power to his kicks. And powerful kicks he has. Besides crushing low kicks, Shogun also has very good round house kicks to the body that he often uses as a counter strike when the opponent throws punches and opens up his side. Like evident in the gif from the Liddell fight, Shogun likes to keep his hands high up on his forehead when under attack. This offer good protection to his head but also leaves him open for body strikes.
Grappling: Shogun is known for his killer striking but his grappling skills are on a high level too. In the wrestling department Shogun’s best weapons are his efficient single leg as well as inside and outside trips from the clinch. On the ground Shogun is also skilled in all aspects. From the top he has fierce Ground and Pound as well as a slick guard passing game. From the bottom Shogun prefers to spin for leg locks and has a wicked helicopter sweep from half guard.
Stamina: Shogun’s cardio, or the lack of it, might be the thing that decides who wins this fight between two skilled fighters. In his recent fights Shogun has definitely shown that there is room for improvement in his cardio department. His limited gas tank is probably not a result of him being lazy and not wanting to put in enough work. It might be that he just isn’t able to train hard enough or often enough due to previous injuries. Shogun has suffered several serious knee injuries during his UFC career: one before the Griffin bout, another one few months after it and the last injury came in the Machida II fight where Shogun won the belt. Although these injuries have been fixed with surgeries and rehab, it’s obvious that each injury has taken away a piece of Shogun’s physical performance. Rua is an explosive fighter who throws everything with great power and thus uses a lot of energy in a short time. Because of this he usually slows down considerably after the first round. Mentally the Brazilian icon is tough as coffin nails and he won’t quit even if there’s very little left in the tank as was seen in his fights with Henderson and Vera.
Keys to victory: Shogun needs to jump on Gustafsson right from the start and turn this fight into a brawl instead of technical striking battle. Considering his cardio issues, it’s obvious that Shogun would want to end this fight early.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua Highlight
In the betting world Gustafsson is a solid favorite over Shogun. Unibet offers Gustafsson to win at 1.42 and Rua to win at 2.70
